Expected Goals (xG)

The probability that a shot becomes a goal, estimated by a model fitted to large numbers of past shots using features such as distance, angle, body part and the kind of play that created the chance. A player's or team's xG is the sum of those probabilities over its shots, so goals minus xG shows finishing above or below an average shooter. Expected assists (xA) apply the same idea to the passes that set up shots. Every provider's model differs, so xG from different sources is not interchangeable.