NFL Head Coach
Best: 2011 MIA (+0.6) · Worst: 2024 TB (-1.4)
Team wins minus the wins its roster's VAL predicts (roster fit r² 0.59), credited by share of games coached and shrunk toward zero for short careers. Descriptive, not causal: health, schedule and luck sit in the same residual.
| Team | Seasons | W–L–T | Pct | Playoffs | Titles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAafter Tony Sparano · before Joe Philbin | 2011 (1) | 2–1 | .667 | — | — |
| NYJafter Rex Ryan · before Adam Gase | 2015–2018 (4) | 24–40 | .375 | — | — |
| TBafter Bruce Arians | 2022–2025 (4) | 35–33 | .515 | — | — |
| NYJ |
| 5 |
| 11 |
| .313 |
| — |
| 2018 | NYJ | 4 | 12 | .250 | — |
| 2022 | TB | 8 | 9 | .471 | 0–1 | Wild Card |
| 2023 | TB | 9 | 8 | .529 | 1–1 | Div. Round |
| 2024 | TB | 10 | 7 | .588 | 0–1 | Wild Card |
| 2025 | TB | 8 | 9 | .471 | — |