+2.3+4.7 raw over 8 seasons · +0.3 a season#31 of 171
Best: 2014 ARI (+2.7) · Worst: 2016 ARI (-1.2)
Team wins minus the wins its roster's VAL predicts (roster fit r² 0.59), credited by share of games coached and shrunk toward zero for short careers. Descriptive, not causal: health, schedule and luck sit in the same residual.