-4.7-6.8 raw over 20 seasons · -0.3 a season#165 of 171
Best: 1998 JAX (+2.5) · Worst: 2014 NYG (-3.4)
Team wins minus the wins its roster's VAL predicts (roster fit r² 0.59), credited by share of games coached and shrunk toward zero for short careers. Descriptive, not causal: health, schedule and luck sit in the same residual.