HOF Case Matrix
The Enshrinement Debate Zone Every contested Hall of Fame case on one chart. The vertical axis is the calibrated HOF probability; the horizontal axis is the gap between what the data says (KV-H position percentile) and what the voters say (accolades). Color is career shape. Clear locks and clear-outs are left off — only the arguable careers (20–80% probability) appear.
133 contested of 364 eligible · 76 where data & voters agree
Underrated Locks ↗ ↖ Voter Darlings Snubbed Bubble ↘ ↙ Fading Cases ← voters say more data says more → 80% 20% 50% Sonny Jurgensen — 20% HOF · divergence +93 Carson Palmer — 23% HOF · divergence +92 · compiler Drew Bledsoe — 28% HOF · divergence +85 Eli Manning — 24% HOF · divergence +84 · compiler George Rogers — 22% HOF · divergence +70 Ben Roethlisberger — 56% HOF · divergence +67 · compiler Boomer Esiason — 30% HOF · divergence +66 Norm Van Brocklin — 34% HOF · divergence +64 Asante Samuel — 31% HOF · divergence +63 Donovan McNabb — 20% HOF · divergence +62 · compiler Simeon Rice — 25% HOF · divergence +57 Ricky Watters — 21% HOF · divergence +54 Frank Gore — 24% HOF · divergence +53 · compiler Freeman McNeil — 21% HOF · divergence +53 DeMarco Murray — 24% HOF · divergence +52 · comet Shaun Alexander — 26% HOF · divergence +51 · balanced Henry Ellard — 30% HOF · divergence +47 Mario Williams — 21% HOF · divergence +45 Don Hutson — 55% HOF · divergence +44 Clyde Simmons — 23% HOF · divergence +43 Rich Gannon — 41% HOF · divergence +43 LeRoy Butler — 24% HOF · divergence -42 Brandon Marshall — 21% HOF · divergence +41 · compiler Sam Madison — 26% HOF · divergence +41 Reggie Wayne — 31% HOF · divergence +40 · compiler NaVorro Bowman — 25% HOF · divergence +39 Darren Sharper — 51% HOF · divergence +38 Jim Brown — 44% HOF · divergence +38 Eddie George — 24% HOF · divergence +38 Robert Mathis — 27% HOF · divergence +36 Steve Smith — 45% HOF · divergence +35 · compiler Torry Holt — 43% HOF · divergence +35 · compiler Mike Quick — 22% HOF · divergence +32 Richard Sherman — 55% HOF · divergence +30 Clay Matthews — 23% HOF · divergence +29 Marshawn Lynch — 22% HOF · divergence +29 · balanced Chad Johnson — 33% HOF · divergence +28 · balanced Neil Smith — 24% HOF · divergence +28 Eric Weddle — 32% HOF · divergence +28 Le'Veon Bell — 22% HOF · divergence +28 · comet Brian Urlacher — 55% HOF · divergence +27 Herman Moore — 35% HOF · divergence +27 La'Roi Glover — 20% HOF · divergence +27 Todd Gurley — 28% HOF · divergence +27 · comet John Abraham — 38% HOF · divergence +25 Terrell Suggs — 37% HOF · divergence +25 Elvis Dumervil — 31% HOF · divergence +25 Jim Kelly — 37% HOF · divergence +25 Earl Thomas — 45% HOF · divergence +24 John Elway — 52% HOF · divergence +24 Jamaal Charles — 24% HOF · divergence +23 · comet Keith Jackson — 20% HOF · divergence +22 LeSean McCoy — 43% HOF · divergence +22 · compiler Eric Allen — 23% HOF · divergence +22 Edgerrin James — 28% HOF · divergence +20 · balanced Darren Woodson — 27% HOF · divergence +20 Roger Craig — 26% HOF · divergence +20 Zach Thomas — 76% HOF · divergence +19 Ty Law — 46% HOF · divergence +19 Michael Irvin — 21% HOF · divergence +19 Luke Kuechly — 64% HOF · divergence +18 Patrick Willis — 59% HOF · divergence +18 Geno Atkins — 32% HOF · divergence +18 Ronde Barber — 50% HOF · divergence +16 Rob Gronkowski — 34% HOF · divergence +15 · balanced Curtis Martin — 37% HOF · divergence +15 Tim Brown — 22% HOF · divergence +15 John Lynch — 76% HOF · divergence +14 Thurman Thomas — 44% HOF · divergence +14 Mike Alstott — 32% HOF · divergence +14 Jason Witten — 34% HOF · divergence +13 · compiler Andre Johnson — 65% HOF · divergence +13 · compiler Terrell Davis — 51% HOF · divergence +13 Charles Haley — 21% HOF · divergence +13 Derrick Brooks — 53% HOF · divergence -12 Chris Doleman — 52% HOF · divergence +11 Aeneas Williams — 66% HOF · divergence +11 Sterling Sharpe — 59% HOF · divergence +11 Jason Taylor — 59% HOF · divergence +10 Jared Allen — 69% HOF · divergence +9 Calvin Johnson — 73% HOF · divergence +9 · balanced Dwight Freeney — 56% HOF · divergence +9 Marcus Allen — 61% HOF · divergence +9 Kevin Williams — 59% HOF · divergence +8 Troy Polamalu — 67% HOF · divergence +8 Derrick Thomas — 53% HOF · divergence +8 Jerome Bettis — 51% HOF · divergence +8 LaDainian Tomlinson — 72% HOF · divergence +6 · compiler Champ Bailey — 78% HOF · divergence +6 Michael Strahan — 75% HOF · divergence +5 Julius Peppers — 72% HOF · divergence +5 Brian Dawkins — 63% HOF · divergence +5 Kevin Greene — 38% HOF · divergence -5 Junior Seau — 79% HOF · divergence +4 Shannon Sharpe — 33% HOF · divergence +4 Warren Sapp — 61% HOF · divergence +4 Marshall Faulk — 62% HOF · divergence +4 Tony Gonzalez — 78% HOF · divergence +3 Richard Seymour — 30% HOF · divergence +3 Cortez Kennedy — 31% HOF · divergence -1 Randall McDaniel — 76% HOF · divergence 0 Mike Singletary — 68% HOF · divergence 0 Larry Allen — 66% HOF · divergence 0 Alan Faneca — 62% HOF · divergence 0 Joe Thomas — 61% HOF · divergence 0 Dermontti Dawson — 56% HOF · divergence 0 Jonathan Ogden — 48% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Roaf — 48% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Hutchinson — 47% HOF · divergence 0 Walter Jones — 44% HOF · divergence 0 Shane Lechler — 35% HOF · divergence 0 Benny Friedman — 60% HOF · divergence 0 Jahri Evans — 38% HOF · divergence 0 Kevin Mawae — 37% HOF · divergence 0 Darrelle Revis — 29% HOF · divergence 0 Will Shields — 36% HOF · divergence 0 Orlando Pace — 32% HOF · divergence 0 Dwight Stephenson — 30% HOF · divergence 0 Mike Munchak — 27% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Wisniewski — 27% HOF · divergence 0 Sammy Baugh — 39% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Anderson — 27% HOF · divergence 0 Maurkice Pouncey — 26% HOF · divergence 0 Marshal Yanda — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Richmond Webb — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Nick Mangold — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Russ Grimm — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Andrew Whitworth — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Tony Boselli — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Jim Lachey — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Lomas Brown — 22% HOF · divergence 0 Tom Nalen — 21% HOF · divergence 0 David DeCastro — 20% HOF · divergence 0 · shaded band = the 45–65% bubble
The Bubble — Make the Case The genuine coin-flips (45–65% probability), ranked by how much the data outruns the accolades. Positive = a data-backed argument for Canton; negative = a career the voters already rate above the numbers.
Methodology
Probability is StatVault's logistic-calibrated HOF Monitor. Divergence = KV-H position percentile − accolade percentile within position group (accolades scored Pro Bowl×1 + All-Pro×2 + HOF×6, the same weighting as the Data-vs-Voters board). Here divergence is shown unfloored for the full contested population, so even small gaps are visible. Neither signal is a verdict — production and reputation measure different things; this surface reveals the gap, not the truth. Players missing either signal are omitted, never fabricated.