HOF Case Matrix
The Enshrinement Debate Zone Every contested Hall of Fame case on one chart. The vertical axis is the calibrated HOF probability; the horizontal axis is the gap between what the data says (KV-H position percentile) and what the voters say (accolades). Color is career shape. Clear locks and clear-outs are left off — only the arguable careers (20–80% probability) appear.
155 contested of 361 eligible · 85where data & voters agree
Underrated Locks ↗ ↖ Voter Darlings Snubbed Bubble ↘ ↙ Fading Cases ← voters say more data says more → 80% 20% 50% Carson Palmer — 31% HOF · divergence +94 · compiler Drew Bledsoe — 37% HOF · divergence +90 Eli Manning — 33% HOF · divergence +88 · compiler Jamal Lewis — 22% HOF · divergence +84 · balanced Ben Roethlisberger — 59% HOF · divergence +74 · compiler Muhsin Muhammad — 26% HOF · divergence +74 George Rogers — 26% HOF · divergence +74 Sonny Jurgensen — 33% HOF · divergence +74 Joe Morris — 22% HOF · divergence +73 Boomer Esiason — 38% HOF · divergence +73 Steve Atwater — 21% HOF · divergence -70 Fran Tarkenton — 28% HOF · divergence +70 Donovan McNabb — 29% HOF · divergence +69 · compiler Jimmy Smith — 27% HOF · divergence +66 Randall Cunningham — 28% HOF · divergence +64 Asante Samuel — 34% HOF · divergence +59 Ricky Watters — 25% HOF · divergence +58 Simeon Rice — 24% HOF · divergence +57 Frank Gore — 28% HOF · divergence +57 · compiler Freeman McNeil — 25% HOF · divergence +57 DeMarco Murray — 28% HOF · divergence +56 · comet Chris Johnson — 23% HOF · divergence +56 · balanced Tiki Barber — 21% HOF · divergence +56 Shaun Alexander — 32% HOF · divergence +55 · balanced Roddy White — 26% HOF · divergence +54 · compiler Aqib Talib — 21% HOF · divergence +46 LeRoy Butler — 28% HOF · divergence -45 Mario Williams — 21% HOF · divergence +44 Joey Porter — 22% HOF · divergence +44 Henry Ellard — 48% HOF · divergence +43 Troy Vincent — 25% HOF · divergence +43 Jim Brown — 49% HOF · divergence +42 Clyde Simmons — 23% HOF · divergence +42 Eddie George — 29% HOF · divergence +42 Andre Rison — 25% HOF · divergence +42 Walter Payton — 21% HOF · divergence +42 Rich Gannon — 48% HOF · divergence +39 Sam Madison — 30% HOF · divergence +38 Don Hutson — 68% HOF · divergence +37 Reggie Wayne — 45% HOF · divergence +37 · compiler Brandon Marshall — 32% HOF · divergence +37 · compiler Darren Sharper — 49% HOF · divergence +35 Cliff Battles — 22% HOF · divergence +35 NaVorro Bowman — 28% HOF · divergence +34 Robert Mathis — 30% HOF · divergence +33 Torry Holt — 58% HOF · divergence +31 · compiler Mike Quick — 34% HOF · divergence +28 Richard Sherman — 52% HOF · divergence +27 Clay Matthews — 27% HOF · divergence +27 Marshawn Lynch — 26% HOF · divergence +27 · balanced Le'Veon Bell — 25% HOF · divergence +27 · comet Chad Johnson — 48% HOF · divergence +26 · balanced Todd Gurley — 31% HOF · divergence +26 · comet Isaac Bruce — 26% HOF · divergence +26 Brian Urlacher — 50% HOF · divergence +25 Herman Moore — 49% HOF · divergence +25 Neil Smith — 23% HOF · divergence +25 Eric Weddle — 35% HOF · divergence +25 La'Roi Glover — 21% HOF · divergence +25 John Abraham — 38% HOF · divergence +23 Terrell Suggs — 37% HOF · divergence +22 Elvis Dumervil — 28% HOF · divergence +22 Art Monk — 29% HOF · divergence +22 Jim Kelly — 44% HOF · divergence +22 Earl Thomas — 45% HOF · divergence +21 LeSean McCoy — 49% HOF · divergence +21 · compiler John Elway — 57% HOF · divergence +21 Jamaal Charles — 29% HOF · divergence +21 · comet Troy Aikman — 28% HOF · divergence +21 Eric Allen — 29% HOF · divergence +20 Zach Thomas — 67% HOF · divergence +18 Keith Jackson — 24% HOF · divergence +18 Edgerrin James — 34% HOF · divergence +18 · balanced Michael Irvin — 32% HOF · divergence +18 Roger Craig — 31% HOF · divergence +18 Luke Kuechly — 57% HOF · divergence +17 Patrick Willis — 54% HOF · divergence +17 Ty Law — 46% HOF · divergence +17 Andre Reed — 24% HOF · divergence +16 Tim Brown — 34% HOF · divergence +15 Kevin Greene — 48% HOF · divergence +14 Geno Atkins — 29% HOF · divergence +14 Curtis Martin — 40% HOF · divergence +14 Darren Woodson — 30% HOF · divergence +14 Rob Gronkowski — 39% HOF · divergence +13 · balanced Derrick Brooks — 49% HOF · divergence -13 Ronde Barber — 48% HOF · divergence +13 Andre Johnson — 78% HOF · divergence +12 · compiler John Lynch — 65% HOF · divergence +12 Thurman Thomas — 51% HOF · divergence +12 Mike Alstott — 38% HOF · divergence +12 Jason Witten — 39% HOF · divergence +11 · compiler Terrell Davis — 57% HOF · divergence +11 Charles Haley — 22% HOF · divergence +11 Sid Luckman — 48% HOF · divergence +11 Jason Taylor — 53% HOF · divergence +10 Chris Doleman — 42% HOF · divergence +10 Sterling Sharpe — 71% HOF · divergence +10 Charles Woodson — 71% HOF · divergence +9 Aeneas Williams — 61% HOF · divergence +9 Darrell Green — 22% HOF · divergence +9 Jared Allen — 53% HOF · divergence +8 Dwight Freeney — 43% HOF · divergence +8 Jerome Bettis — 57% HOF · divergence +8 Troy Polamalu — 63% HOF · divergence +7 Derrick Thomas — 49% HOF · divergence +7 LaDainian Tomlinson — 80% HOF · divergence +6 · compiler Arnie Herber — 48% HOF · divergence +6 Junior Seau — 70% HOF · divergence +4 Shannon Sharpe — 38% HOF · divergence +4 Champ Bailey — 71% HOF · divergence +4 Marshall Faulk — 68% HOF · divergence +4 Michael Strahan — 58% HOF · divergence +3 Julius Peppers — 55% HOF · divergence +3 Brian Dawkins — 58% HOF · divergence +3 DeMarcus Ware — 73% HOF · divergence +2 Deion Sanders — 78% HOF · divergence +2 Warren Sapp — 47% HOF · divergence +2 Cortez Kennedy — 28% HOF · divergence -2 Richard Seymour — 27% HOF · divergence +2 Anthony Munoz — 50% HOF · divergence 0 Bruce Smith — 63% HOF · divergence 0 Bruce Matthews — 47% HOF · divergence 0 Randall McDaniel — 45% HOF · divergence 0 Larry Allen — 40% HOF · divergence 0 Alan Faneca — 38% HOF · divergence 0 Joe Thomas — 38% HOF · divergence 0 Jonathan Ogden — 33% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Roaf — 33% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Hutchinson — 32% HOF · divergence 0 Shane Lechler — 37% HOF · divergence 0 Walter Jones — 31% HOF · divergence 0 Jahri Evans — 29% HOF · divergence 0 Darrelle Revis — 32% HOF · divergence 0 Kevin Mawae — 28% HOF · divergence 0 Will Shields — 28% HOF · divergence 0 Orlando Pace — 27% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Wisniewski — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Anderson — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Maurkice Pouncey — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Marshal Yanda — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Richmond Webb — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Nick Mangold — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Andrew Whitworth — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Tony Boselli — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Lomas Brown — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Tom Nalen — 22% HOF · divergence 0 David DeCastro — 22% HOF · divergence 0 Ryan Kalil — 22% HOF · divergence 0 Bill Fralic — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Chris Hinton — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Logan Mankins — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Olin Kreutz — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Ruben Brown — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Ryan Clady — 21% HOF · divergence 0 · shaded band = the 45–65% bubble
The Bubble — Make the Case The genuine coin-flips (45–65% probability), ranked by how much the data outruns the accolades. Positive = a data-backed argument for Canton; negative = a career the voters already rate above the numbers.
Methodology
Probability is StatVault's logistic-calibrated HOF Monitor. Divergence = KV-H position percentile − accolade percentile within position group (accolades scored Pro Bowl×1 + All-Pro×2 + HOF×6, the same weighting as the Data-vs-Voters board). Here divergence is shown unfloored for the full contested population, so even small gaps are visible. Neither signal is a verdict — production and reputation measure different things; this surface reveals the gap, not the truth. Players missing either signal are omitted, never fabricated.