NFL Draft
Which rounds and eras produce the most NFL value? Based on 12,496 picks across 53 draft classes. A Gem = an all-time top-100 player in any statistical category. A Starter = any ranked career. Verified against the StatVault encyclopedia — no fabricated data.
% of picks per round who became all-time top-100 players.≥25%≥15%≥8%≥3%<3%
| Round | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd 1 | 8% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 2% |
| Rd 2 | 3% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 1% |
| Rd 3 | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 0% |
| Rd 4 | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Rd 5 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% |
| Rd 6 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Rd 7 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Rd 8 | 0% | 2% | 3% | — | — | — |
| Rd 9 | 0% | 1% | 4% | — | — | — |
| Rd 10 | 2% | 1% | 0% | — | — | — |
| Rd 11 | 2% | 0% | 0% | — | — | — |
| Rd 12 | 2% | 2% | 3% | — | — | — |
| Rd 13 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rd 14 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rd 15 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rd 16 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rd 17 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — |
Ranked by expected Hall-of-Famers — the sum of each class's calibrated HOF Monitor probabilities. This surfaces recent classes whose Canton careers aren't enshrined yet — the actual HOF count can't show that.
Ranked by class score (Gems × 3 + Hall of Famers × 10 + Starters × 0.5). Minimum 10 picks to qualify.
Pearson correlation between combine measurables and KV-H career value score, by position group. Covers 3,693 players with both combine data and KV-H scores (1999+). Higher |r| = more predictive.
| Position | Top Predictor | r | 2nd Predictor | r | 3rd Predictor | r | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Height (in) | +0.171 | Weight (lbs) | +0.151 | Shuttle Run | -0.065 | 180 |
| RB | 40-Yard Dash | +0.244 | Broad Jump | +0.221 | 3-Cone Drill | +0.191 | 527 |
| WR | Weight (lbs) | +0.109 | Bench Press (reps) | +0.104 | Vertical Jump | +0.085 | 621 |
Enter any combine measurables and find the most athletically similar players in NFL history. Weights use Pearson r between each metric and KV-H career value for this position.
Signal strength for QB: strongest predictor is Height (in) at r=+0.17 (very weak, n=180). Treat matches as athletic similarity, not a career forecast.
| TE | 40-Yard Dash | +0.342 | Broad Jump | +0.260 | Vertical Jump | +0.212 | 302 |
| EDGE | 3-Cone Drill | +0.203 | 40-Yard Dash | +0.186 | Broad Jump | +0.181 | 554 |
| DL | 3-Cone Drill | +0.269 | Broad Jump | +0.217 | 40-Yard Dash | +0.194 | 344 |
| LB | 40-Yard Dash | +0.186 | 3-Cone Drill | +0.131 | Shuttle Run | +0.120 | 510 |
| DB | Shuttle Run | +0.161 | Vertical Jump | +0.136 | 3-Cone Drill | +0.100 | 645 |
r = Pearson correlation with KV-H. Adjusted so positive = good predictor (e.g. faster 40 → +r for speed positions). Correlations are modest (|r| ≤ 0.35) — combine measurables explain some variance but not career trajectory.