Hall of Very Good

NBA careers on the Hall's doorstep

Eligible players outside the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame whose record the model rates between 20% and 50% — great careers that look more like the Hall's borderline than its core. 59 players; the top 50 are listed. Probabilities are out-of-fold: each player was scored by a model that never saw his own outcome.

Rankings as of 2026-10-03, as declared by the corpus that produced them.

See the statistical snubs →

NBA Hall of Very Good
#	Player	Career VAL	Peak	Top-1% / led	Classes	Model
1	Mike BibbyPG · 1999–2012 · 12 seasons	131.1	15.3	0 / 0	12	47%
2	Alvin RobertsonSG · 1985–1996 · 9 seasons	132.4	18.6	1 / 1	28	46%
3	Zach RandolphF · 2002–2018 · 16 seasons	174.3	15.4	0 / 0	6	43%
4	Paul SilasPF · 1965–1980 · 16 seasons	148.2	14.5	0 / 0	44	43%
5	Marques JohnsonSF · 1978–1986 · 9 seasons	114.7	15.2	0 / 0	38	43%
6	Byron ScottSG · 1984–1997 · 14 seasons	130.8	12.9	0 / 0	27	41%
7	Mark EatonC · 1983–1993 · 11 seasons	127.9	14	0 / 0	31	40%
8	Jimmy JonesPG/SG · 1968–1976 · 9 seasons	100.2	13.7	0 / 0	48	40%
9	LaMarcus AldridgeC · 2007–2022 · 15 seasons	168	13.3	0 / 0	2	39%
10	Monta EllisSG · 2006–2017 · 11 seasons	138.8	16.7	0 / 0	7	38%
11	Ben SimmonsPG · 2018–2023 · 5 seasons	73.1	17.9	2 / 0	1	38%
12	Antonio McDyessPF · 1996–2011 · 13 seasons	145.2	14.8	0 / 0	13	37%
13	Jason TerryG · 2000–2018 · 19 seasons	184.9	14	0 / 0	6	36%
14	Mychal ThompsonC · 1979–1991 · 11 seasons	123.8	14.8	0 / 0	33	36%
15	Marc GasolC · 2009–2021 · 12 seasons	129.1	13.7	0 / 0	3	36%
16	Zydrunas IlgauskasC · 1998–2011 · 12 seasons	131.5	16	0 / 0	13	35%
17	Larry KenonPF · 1974–1982 · 9 seasons	110.5	15.4	0 / 0	42	35%
18	Caldwell JonesC/PF · 1974–1990 · 16 seasons	150.4	14.4	0 / 0	34	34%
19	Steve FrancisPG · 2000–2007 · 7 seasons	102.8	17.4	0 / 0	17	34%
20	Johnny KerrC · 1955–1966 · 12 seasons	128.6	14.2	0 / 0	58	34%
21	Reggie TheusSG/PG · 1979–1991 · 12 seasons	152.3	15.2	0 / 0	33	33%
22	Kenyon MartinPF · 2001–2014 · 13 seasons	124.1	13.8	0 / 0	10	33%
23	Norm NixonPG · 1978–1989 · 10 seasons	116.8	14.1	0 / 0	35	33%
24	Derek HarperPG · 1984–1999 · 15 seasons	158	14.1	0 / 0	25	32%
25	Robert ReidSG/SF · 1978–1989 · 11 seasons	120.9	14.8	0 / 0	35	30%
26	Brad DaughertyC · 1987–1994 · 8 seasons	98.8	14.8	0 / 0	30	30%
27	Eddie JonesSG · 1995–2008 · 12 seasons	143.9	15.2	0 / 0	16	29%
28	Andrei KirilenkoSF · 2002–2014 · 12 seasons	136.8	14.9	0 / 0	10	29%
29	Tom ChambersPF · 1982–1995 · 14 seasons	139.7	13	0 / 0	29	29%
30	David LeePF · 2006–2017 · 11 seasons	133.4	16.4	0 / 0	7	29%
31	Jason RichardsonSG · 2002–2015 · 11 seasons	125.7	16.3	0 / 0	9	29%
32	Alvan AdamsPF/C · 1976–1988 · 13 seasons	139.9	13.1	0 / 0	36	29%
33	Doc RiversPG · 1984–1996 · 12 seasons	118.5	14.7	0 / 0	28	28%
34	Sidney WicksPF · 1972–1981 · 10 seasons	124.6	17.2	0 / 0	43	28%
35	Sam PerkinsPF/C · 1985–2001 · 16 seasons	142.5	12.3	0 / 0	23	27%
36	Rolando BlackmanSG · 1982–1994 · 13 seasons	139	14.4	0 / 0	30	27%
37	Sam CassellPG · 1994–2007 · 12 seasons	135.9	15.1	0 / 0	17	27%
38	Terry CummingsPF/SF · 1983–2000 · 16 seasons	151	14.2	0 / 0	24	27%
39	Latrell SprewellSG · 1993–2005 · 12 seasons	152.6	15.9	1 / 0	19	26%
40	Ron BooneSG · 1969–1981 · 10 seasons	101.4	13.6	0 / 0	43	26%
41	Doug ChristieSG · 1993–2004 · 10 seasons	117.6	15.1	0 / 0	20	26%
42	Rik SmitsC · 1989–2000 · 12 seasons	121.7	12.5	0 / 0	24	25%
43	Rudy LaRussoPF/C · 1960–1969 · 10 seasons	101.9	12.1	0 / 0	55	25%
44	Richard HamiltonSG · 2000–2013 · 14 seasons	126.2	12.8	0 / 0	11	25%
45	Antawn JamisonPF · 2002–2014 · 12 seasons	133.3	14.3	0 / 0	10	25%
46	Otis ThorpePF/C · 1985–2001 · 15 seasons	161.1	14.8	0 / 0	23	25%
47	Jermaine O'NealC · 1997–2014 · 17 seasons	152.2	18.3	0 / 0	10	24%
48	Thaddeus YoungF · 2008–2023 · 14 seasons	149.4	14.3	0 / 0	1	24%
49	Hersey HawkinsSG · 1989–2001 · 13 seasons	137.3	13	0 / 0	23	23%
50	Danny AingeSG/PG · 1982–1995 · 13 seasons	106.5	11.5	0 / 0	29	23%

Where the model misses the other way

Inductees the model rated least likely. Most are careers the corpus only partly sees — pioneers, players honoured for work before or outside this league, or for what the numbers here do not measure.

NBA lowest-probability inductees
#	Player	Career VAL	Peak	Top-1% / led	Model
1	Šarūnas MarčiulionisSG · 1990–1997 · 7 seasons	36	7.5	0 / 0	<1%
2	Toni KukocSF · 1994–2006 · 11 seasons	87.5	10.1	0 / 0

Method and calibration

One logistic regression for the NBA, fitted on 1,362 retired, eligible players of whom 145 are in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame (base rate 11%). Retired, last season ≤ 2023 (at least one induction class chosen since he became eligible), and ≥ 5 seasons in the VAL corpus. Inductees below the floor are excluded from training. 7 inductees fall below that floor — mostly careers played largely before or outside this league's corpus — and are not trained on. League-best seasons are ranked league-wide.

The model reads on-field value only: career and peak VAL, league-best seasons by VAL, playoff VAL and longevity. It cannot see awards voting, championships beyond playoff VAL, pre-league or international careers, eligibility bans, or character clauses. Every training player's probability is out-of-fold (scored by a model that never saw his own label). Active players (appeared in one of the last two seasons — the corpus has no retirement flag) and retired players still inside the waiting period are scored on their career to date by the full-data model — a trajectory, not a forecast. A non-inductee who is still eligible may yet be chosen, and a player still playing outside the league is not eligible however long ago he left it. Black ink is shown for context but is not a model input: its season coverage is shorter than the VAL corpus.

Held-out Brier

0.0518

base-rate guess 0.0951

Brier skill

46%

better than the base rate

AUC

0.942

ranks an inductee above a non-inductee

Folds

stratified, deterministic

0–10%	1066	2%	1% (13)
10–20%	103	14%	26% (27)
20–30%	50	25%	30% (15)
30–40%	25	35%	32% (8)
40–50%	12	45%	42% (5)
50–60%	18	56%	56% (10)
60–70%	28	64%	46% (13)
70–80%	14	75%	79% (11)
80–90%	11	84%	82% (9)
90–100%	35	97%	97% (34)

Input	Pool mean	Coefficient
Career VAL	74.728	+2.2646
Best 3-season VAL average	10.391	+0.445
Seasons in the top 1% of the league by VAL	0.097	-0.2247
Seasons as the league's VAL leader	0.048	+0.2428
Career playoff VAL	25.517	+0.802
Seasons played	9.262	-1.382
Intercept		-3.4797