Did the Combine Predict Production?

The verdict, by position

Correlation between the athletic composite and realized career VAL. Higher bars mean the workout tracked production more closely — none of them tracked it strongly.

• TEr 0.28modestn=271
• DLr 0.26modestn=320
• EDGEr 0.23weakn=459
• RBr 0.18weakn=463
• LBr 0.11weakn=504
• DBr 0.09no signaln=755
• OLr 0.08no signaln=831
• WRr 0.00no signaln=553
• QBr -0.07no signaln=152

Production without measurables

Players whose production percentile most exceeded their athletic-testing percentile within their position — the ones the workout would have talked you out of.

1. 1Orlando BrownOT2018athletic 0.1→production 99.4· 5.85s forty+99.3pct surplus
2. 2Anquan BoldinWR2003athletic 1.4→production 99· 4.72s forty+97.6pct surplus
3. 3Tom BradyQB2000athletic 2.3→production 99.7· 5.28s forty+97.4pct surplus
4. 4Chad JohnsonWR2001athletic 2.1→production 98.1· 4.57s forty+96pct surplus
5. 5Zach StriefOT2006athletic 3.9→production 99.2· 5.38s forty+95.3pct surplus
6. 6Jarvis LandryWR2014athletic 0.6→production 94.8· 4.65s forty+94.2pct surplus
7. 7Calais CampbellDE2008athletic 5.4→production 98.4· 5.04s forty+93pct surplus
8. 8Rob HavensteinOT2015athletic 4.5→production 97.4· 5.46s forty+92.9pct surplus
9. 9Dre'Mont JonesLB2019athletic 0.1→production 93· 5.12s forty+92.9pct surplus
10. 10Pernell McPheeLB2011athletic 1.9→production 93.8· 4.91s forty+91.9pct surplus
11. 11Chris JonesDE2016athletic 6.3→production 97.3· 5.03s forty+91pct surplus
12. 12Plaxico BurressWR2000athletic 4.3→production 95.2· 4.59s forty+90.9pct surplus
13. 13Antonio BrownWR2010athletic 7.9→production 98.6· 4.56s forty+90.7pct surplus
14. 14DeAndre HopkinsWR2013athletic 8.7→production 98.8· 4.57s forty+90.1pct surplus
15. 15Ramon FosterG2009athletic 3.4→production 93.5· 5.57s forty+90.1pct surplus
16. 16Brandon FlowersCB2008athletic 4→production 93.7· 4.55s forty+89.7pct surplus
17. 17Larry WarfordG2013athletic 5.5→production 94.6· 5.58s forty+89.1pct surplus
18. 18Roy WilliamsS2002athletic 3.4→production 92.4· 4.53s forty+89pct surplus
19. 19Matt RyanQB2008athletic 8.9→production 97.7· 4.89s forty+88.8pct surplus
20. 20Jordan PoyerFS2013athletic 9.5→production 97.7· 4.54s forty+88.2pct surplus
21. 21A.J. EpenesaLB2020athletic 3.6→production 91.5· 5.04s forty+87.9pct surplus
22. 22Dashon GoldsonDB2007athletic 1.6→production 88.9· 4.60s forty+87.3pct surplus
23. 23Mitchell SchwartzOT2012athletic 10.2→production 96.9· 5.38s forty+86.7pct surplus
24. 24Tyrann MathieuFS2013athletic 13→production 99.5· 4.50s forty+86.5pct surplus
25. 25Robert WoodsWR2013athletic 8.2→production 94.5· 4.51s forty+86.3pct surplus
26. 26James ConnerRB2017athletic 9.2→production 95.4· 4.65s forty+86.2pct surplus
27. 27Danny AmendolaWR2008athletic 3.1→production 89· 4.58s forty+85.9pct surplus
28. 28Xavien HowardCB2016athletic 12→production 97.5· 4.58s forty+85.5pct surplus
29. 29DeMarcus LawrenceLB2014athletic 13.7→production 98.9· 4.80s forty+85.2pct surplus
30. 30Ryan O'CallaghanOT2006athletic 4.1→production 88.9· 5.39s forty+84.8pct surplus
31. 31Danny TrevathanILB2012athletic 4.4→production 89.1· 4.84s forty+84.7pct surplus
32. 32Clark HaggansLB2000athletic 10.8→production 95.4· 4.97s forty+84.6pct surplus
33. 33Jahri EvansG2006athletic 15.8→production 99.6· 5.25s forty+83.8pct surplus
34. 34Kam ChancellorDB2010athletic 4.2→production 87.7· 4.62s forty+83.5pct surplus
35. 35Matt SchaubQB2004athletic 5.6→production 89.1· 5.04s forty+83.5pct surplus
36. 36Alex CappaG2018athletic 14→production 97.4· 5.39s forty+83.4pct surplus
37. 37Dwight LoweryFS2008athletic 5.4→production 88.5· 4.54s forty+83.1pct surplus
38. 38Russ HochsteinC2001athletic 11.6→production 94.2· 5.40s forty+82.6pct surplus
39. 39Leonard WilliamsDE2015athletic 7.1→production 89.7· 4.97s forty+82.6pct surplus
40. 40Mark TauscherOT2000athletic 10.7→production 93.1· 5.37s forty+82.4pct surplus

Workout warriors

The honest inverse: players who tested elite but produced below their athletic rank. Every name here carries a real career-value number — a player with no realized value is excluded, never labeled a bust.

1. 1Shemar StewartDE2025athletic 99→production 8.6· 4.59s forty-90.4pct surplus
2. 2Landon JacksonDE2025athletic 98.4→production 8.6· 4.68s forty-89.8pct surplus
3. 3Deion BurksWR2026athletic 99.9→production 11.3· 4.30s forty-88.6pct surplus
4. 4Shaka ToneyDE2021athletic 95.1→production 8.6· 4.51s forty-86.5pct surplus
5. 5Obi MelifonwuDB2017athletic 99.7→production 13.6· 4.40s forty-86.1pct surplus
6. 6Marvell TellCB2019athletic 99.5→production 13.6-85.9pct surplus
7. 7Tai FeltonWR2025athletic 97→production 11.3· 4.37s forty-85.7pct surplus
8. 8Max MeltonCB2024athletic 99.3→production 13.6· 4.39s forty-85.7pct surplus
9. 9Brady ChristensenOT2021athletic 99.7→production 14.1-85.6pct surplus
10. 10Kendrick RogersOT2002athletic 99.6→production 14.1· 4.51s forty-85.5pct surplus
11. 11Alex LeatherwoodOT2021athletic 99.4→production 14.1· 4.96s forty-85.3pct surplus
12. 12Armand MembouOT2025athletic 99.1→production 14.1· 4.91s forty-85pct surplus
13. 13Taylor MaysS2010athletic 98.5→production 13.6· 4.31s forty-84.9pct surplus
14. 14Elijah JonesCB2024athletic 98.1→production 13.6· 4.44s forty-84.5pct surplus
15. 15Vernon GholstonDE2008athletic 92.5→production 8.6· 4.65s forty-83.9pct surplus
16. 16Max IheanachorOT2026athletic 97.5→production 14.1· 4.91s forty-83.4pct surplus
17. 17Shamarko ThomasDB2013athletic 96.9→production 13.6· 4.42s forty-83.3pct surplus
18. 18Troy ApkeDB2018athletic 96.8→production 13.6· 4.34s forty-83.2pct surplus
19. 19Jermaine BurtonWR2024athletic 94.3→production 11.3· 4.45s forty-83pct surplus
20. 20Caleb LomuOT2026athletic 97.1→production 14.1· 4.99s forty-83pct surplus
21. 21Jarrod CooperDB2001athletic 95.9→production 13.6· 4.45s forty-82.3pct surplus
22. 22Jake FisherOT2015athletic 96.1→production 14.1· 5.01s forty-82pct surplus
23. 23Will Lee IIICB2026athletic 95.5→production 13.6· 4.52s forty-81.9pct surplus
24. 24Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDT2025athletic 98.9→production 17· 4.86s forty-81.9pct surplus
25. 25Brady CookQB2025athletic 94.4→production 12.5· 4.59s forty-81.9pct surplus
26. 26Darien PorterCB2025athletic 95.1→production 13.6· 4.30s forty-81.5pct surplus
27. 27Jaylin LaneWR2025athletic 92.3→production 11.3· 4.34s forty-81pct surplus
28. 28Cam SmithCB2023athletic 94.6→production 13.6· 4.43s forty-81pct surplus
29. 29Dorin DickersonTE2010athletic 98.3→production 17.3· 4.40s forty-81pct surplus
30. 30Spencer FanoOT2026athletic 94.9→production 14.1· 4.91s forty-80.8pct surplus
31. 31Logan JonesC2026athletic 94.7→production 14.1· 4.90s forty-80.6pct surplus
32. 32Owa OdighizuwaDE2015athletic 89.2→production 8.6· 4.62s forty-80.6pct surplus
33. 33Brett HundleyQB2015athletic 93.1→production 12.5· 4.63s forty-80.6pct surplus
34. 34Channing TindallLB2022athletic 99.5→production 19· 4.47s forty-80.5pct surplus
35. 35Cole StrangeG2022athletic 94.5→production 14.1· 5.03s forty-80.4pct surplus
36. 36Josh BoyceWR2013athletic 91.5→production 11.3· 4.38s forty-80.2pct surplus
37. 37Kendrick GreenG2021athletic 94→production 14.1· 4.89s forty-79.9pct surplus
38. 38James HannaTE2012athletic 97.2→production 17.3· 4.43s forty-79.9pct surplus
39. 39Javin HunterWR2002athletic 91→production 11.3· 4.47s forty-79.7pct surplus
40. 40Robert DavisWR2017athletic 91→production 11.3· 4.44s forty-79.7pct surplus