NFL Draft Steals & Busts

Rankings as of 2026-09-03, as declared by the corpus that produced them.

Which picks beat their draft slot, and which premium picks fell short. Each player's career KV-H(StatVault's era-normalized Historical Knox value) is measured against the average return for its draft-capital bucket — so a 6th-round gem is judged against other 6th-rounders, and a top-5 miss against other top-5 picks.

3,173 eligible picks · draft classes 2000–2021

Biggest Steals — value far above draft slot

1
Tom BradyQB2000 · Rd 6, 199th overall · NE
+55.2
Career KV-H 93Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
2
Antonio BrownWR2010 · Rd 6, 195th overall · PIT
+54.2
Career KV-H 92Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
3
Jared AllenDE2004 · Rd 4, 126th overall · KAN
+52.3
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
4
Robert MathisOLB2003 · Rd 5, 138th overall · IND
+52.3
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
5
Tyreek HillWR2016 · Rd 5, 165th overall · KC
+51.8
Career KV-H 91Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
6
George KittleTE2017 · Rd 5, 146th overall · SF
+50.3
Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
7
Elvis DumervilDE2006 · Rd 4, 126th overall · DEN
+50.3
Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
8
Danielle HunterDE2015 · Rd 3, 88th overall · MIN
+49
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
9
Jason WittenTE2003 · Rd 3, 69th overall · DAL
+49
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
10
Richard ShermanCB2011 · Rd 5, 154th overall · SEA
+45.8
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
11
Maxx CrosbyDE2019 · Rd 4, 106th overall · LV
+45.3
Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
12
Darren WallerTE2015 · Rd 6, 204th overall · BAL
+45.2
Career KV-H 83Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
13
Kabeer Gbaja-BiamilaDE2000 · Rd 5, 149th overall · GB
+44.3
Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
14
Foye OluokunLB2018 · Rd 6, 200th overall · ATL
+44.2
Career KV-H 82Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
15
Justin HoustonOLB2011 · Rd 3, 70th overall · KC
+44
Career KV-H 92Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
16
Geno AtkinsDT2010 · Rd 4, 120th overall · CIN
+42.3
Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
17
Brandon MarshallWR2006 · Rd 4, 119th overall · DEN
+42.3
Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
18
Trent ColeOLB2005 · Rd 5, 146th overall · PHI
+42.3
Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
19
Travis KelceTE2013 · Rd 3, 63rd overall · KC
+41.7
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
20
Bobby WagnerMLB2012 · Rd 2, 47th overall · SEA
+41.7
Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
21
Steve SmithWR2001 · Rd 3, 74th overall · CAR
+41
Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
22
Greg HardyDE2010 · Rd 6, 175th overall · CAR
+40.8
Career KV-H 80Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
23
Aaron KampmanDE2002 · Rd 5, 156th overall · GB
+40.8
Career KV-H 80Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
24
Rob GronkowskiTE2010 · Rd 2, 42nd overall · NE
+40.7
Career KV-H 96Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
25
Za'Darius SmithDE2015 · Rd 4, 122nd overall · BAL
+40.3
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
26
Asante SamuelCB2003 · Rd 4, 120th overall · NE
+40.3
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
27
Matthew JudonOLB2016 · Rd 5, 146th overall · BAL
+39.3
Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
28
Stefon DiggsWR2015 · Rd 5, 146th overall · MIN
+38.3
Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
29
Geno StoneSAF2020 · Rd 7, 219th overall · BAL
+38.2
Career KV-H 76Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
30
Everson GriffenDE2010 · Rd 4, 100th overall · MIN
+38
Career KV-H 86Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
31
Adalius ThomasOLB2000 · Rd 6, 186th overall · BAL
+37.8
Career KV-H 77Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
32
Marques ColstonWR2006 · Rd 7, 252nd overall · NO
+37.2
Career KV-H 75Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
33
Yannick NgakoueDE2016 · Rd 3, 69th overall · JAX
+37
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
34
Tyrann MathieuFS2013 · Rd 3, 69th overall · ARI
+37
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
35
Jimmy GrahamTE2010 · Rd 3, 95th overall · NO
+37
Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
36
Chris JonesDE2016 · Rd 2, 37th overall · KC
+36.7
Career KV-H 92Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
37
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR2021 · Rd 4, 112th overall · DET
+36.3
Career KV-H 81Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
38
T.J. WattOLB2017 · Rd 1, 30th overall · PIT
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
39
J.J. WattDE2011 · Rd 1, 11th overall · HOU
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
40
DeMarcus WareOLB2005 · Rd 1, 11th overall · DAL
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
41
Dwight FreeneyDE2002 · Rd 1, 11th overall · IND
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
42
Ed ReedFS2002 · Rd 1, 24th overall · BAL
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
43
John AbrahamOLB2000 · Rd 1, 13th overall · NYJ
+36
Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
44
Mark AndrewsTE2018 · Rd 3, 86th overall · BAL
+36
Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
45
Shaun PhillipsOLB2004 · Rd 4, 98th overall · LAC
+36
Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
46
Michael TurnerRB2004 · Rd 5, 154th overall · SDG
+35.8
Career KV-H 75Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
47
Zach SielerDE2018 · Rd 7, 238th overall · BAL
+35.2
Career KV-H 73Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
48
Chandler JonesDE2012 · Rd 1, 21st overall · NE
+35
Career KV-H 96Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
49
Keenan AllenWR2013 · Rd 3, 76th overall · LAC
+35
Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
50
Cliff AvrilDE2008 · Rd 3, 92nd overall · DET
+35
Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
51
Charles JohnsonDE2007 · Rd 3, 83rd overall · CAR
+35
Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
52
Justin TuckDE2005 · Rd 3, 74th overall · NYG
+35
Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48
53
Alfred MorrisRB2012 · Rd 6, 173rd overall · WAS
+34.8
Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
54
Mark AndersonDE2006 · Rd 5, 159th overall · CHI
+34.8
Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
55
Delanie WalkerTE2006 · Rd 6, 175th overall · SF
+34.8
Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
56
Davante AdamsWR2014 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · GB
+34.7
Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
57
Calais CampbellDE2008 · Rd 2, 50th overall · ARI
+34.7
Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
58
Quandre DiggsS2015 · Rd 6, 200th overall · DET
+34.2
Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
59
Kurt ColemanS2010 · Rd 7, 244th overall · PHI
+34.2
Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8
60
Frank GoreRB2005 · Rd 3, 65th overall · SF
+34
Career KV-H 82Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Biggest Busts — premium picks that fell short

Drawn only from top-two-round picks that registered a measurable career and still fell below their slot. Players with no KV-H on record are excluded — absence is a coverage gap, not evidence of a bust.

1
Trey LanceQB2021 · Rd 1, 3rd overall · SF
-62.6
Career KV-H 4Expected for Top 5 66.6
2
Marques TuiasosopoQB2001 · Rd 2, 59th overall · OAK
-51.3
Career KV-H 4Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
3
Kevin WhiteWR2015 · Rd 1, 7th overall · CHI
-46.5
Career KV-H 17Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
4
Pat WhiteQB2009 · Rd 2, 44th overall · MIA
-46.3
Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
5
Limas SweedWR2008 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · PIT
-46.3
Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
6
Johnny ManzielQB2014 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · CLE
-46
Career KV-H 15Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
7
Rashaun WoodsWR2004 · Rd 1, 31st overall · SFO
-45
Career KV-H 16Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
8
James HardyWR2008 · Rd 2, 41st overall · BUF
-43.3
Career KV-H 12Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
9
Josh RosenQB2018 · Rd 1, 10th overall · ARI
-42.5
Career KV-H 21Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
10
Eric SheltonRB2005 · Rd 2, 54th overall · CAR
-42.3
Career KV-H 13Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
11
Caleb FarleyCB2021 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · TEN
-42
Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
12
Tim TebowQB2010 · Rd 1, 25th overall · DEN
-42
Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
13
John BeckQB2007 · Rd 2, 40th overall · MIA
-41.3
Career KV-H 14Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
14
EJ ManuelQB2013 · Rd 1, 16th overall · BUF
-40
Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
15
Justin HarrellDT2007 · Rd 1, 16th overall · GB
-40
Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
16
Charles RogersWR2003 · Rd 1, 2nd overall · DET
-39.6
Career KV-H 27Expected for Top 5 66.6
17
Jamal ReynoldsDE2001 · Rd 1, 10th overall · GB
-39.5
Career KV-H 24Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
18
Willie HowardDT2001 · Rd 2, 57th overall · MIN
-39.3
Career KV-H 16Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
19
Brady QuinnQB2007 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · CLE
-39
Career KV-H 22Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
20
Cyrus JonesCB2016 · Rd 2, 60th overall · NE
-38.3
Career KV-H 17Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
21
JaMarcus RussellQB2007 · Rd 1, 1st overall · OAK
-37.6
Career KV-H 29Expected for Top 5 66.6
22
Jimmy ClausenQB2010 · Rd 2, 48th overall · CAR
-37.3
Career KV-H 18Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
23
Clint SintimLB2009 · Rd 2, 45th overall · NYG
-36.3
Career KV-H 19Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
24
Dwayne HaskinsQB2019 · Rd 1, 15th overall · WAS
-36
Career KV-H 25Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
25
Jake LockerQB2011 · Rd 1, 8th overall · TEN
-35.5
Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
26
Matt LeinartQB2006 · Rd 1, 10th overall · ARI
-35.5
Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
27
Kevin DoddOLB2016 · Rd 2, 33rd overall · TEN
-35.3
Career KV-H 20Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
28
A.J. JenkinsWR2012 · Rd 1, 30th overall · SF
-35
Career KV-H 26Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
29
Vernon GholstonDE2008 · Rd 1, 6th overall · NYJ
-34.5
Career KV-H 29Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
30
Marvin AustinDT2011 · Rd 2, 52nd overall · NYG
-34.3
Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
31
Drew StantonQB2007 · Rd 2, 43rd overall · DET
-34.3
Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
32
Tony HollingsRB2003 · Rd 2, 1st overall · HOU
-33.6
Career KV-H 33Expected for Top 5 66.6
33
Ryan WilliamsRB2011 · Rd 2, 38th overall · ARI
-33.3
Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
34
Taylor JacobsWR2003 · Rd 2, 44th overall · WAS
-33.3
Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
35
Reuben FosterOLB2017 · Rd 1, 31st overall · SF
-33
Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
36
Aaron MaybinLB2009 · Rd 1, 11th overall · BUF
-33
Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
37
David PollackLB2005 · Rd 1, 17th overall · CIN
-33
Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
38
Chris HenryRB2007 · Rd 2, 50th overall · TEN
-32.3
Career KV-H 23Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
39
Derrius GuiceRB2018 · Rd 2, 59th overall · WAS
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
40
Teez TaborCB2017 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · DET
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
41
Devin SmithWR2015 · Rd 2, 37th overall · NYJ
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
42
LaMichael JamesRB2012 · Rd 2, 61st overall · SF
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
43
Jimmy WilliamsFS2006 · Rd 2, 37th overall · ATL
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
44
Eddie MooreLB2003 · Rd 2, 49th overall · MIA
-31.3
Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
45
Damon ArnetteCB2020 · Rd 1, 19th overall · LV
-31
Career KV-H 30Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
46
Arthur BrownLB2013 · Rd 2, 56th overall · BAL
-30.3
Career KV-H 25Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
47
Kellen ClemensQB2006 · Rd 2, 49th overall · NYJ
-30.3
Career KV-H 25Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
48
Marcus SmithLB2014 · Rd 1, 26th overall · PHI
-30
Career KV-H 31Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
49
R.Jay SowardWR2000 · Rd 1, 29th overall · JAX
-30
Career KV-H 31Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
50
Zach WilsonQB2021 · Rd 1, 2nd overall · NYJ
-29.6
Career KV-H 37Expected for Top 5 66.6
51
Blaine GabbertQB2011 · Rd 1, 10th overall · JAX
-29.5
Career KV-H 34Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5
52
J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR2019 · Rd 2, 57th overall · PHI
-29.3
Career KV-H 26Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
53
Craig DavisWR2007 · Rd 1, 30th overall · SDG
-29
Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
54
Jerome McDougleDE2003 · Rd 1, 15th overall · PHI
-29
Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61
55
Kelvin JosephCB2021 · Rd 2, 44th overall · DAL
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
56
Isaiah PeadRB2012 · Rd 2, 50th overall · LA
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
57
Ron BraceDT2009 · Rd 2, 40th overall · NE
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
58
Dwayne JarrettWR2007 · Rd 2, 45th overall · CAR
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
59
Ikaika Alama-FrancisLB2007 · Rd 2, 58th overall · DET
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
60
Chad JacksonWR2006 · Rd 2, 36th overall · NWE
-28.3
Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

NFL Draft Steals & Busts

Rankings as of 2026-09-03, as declared by the corpus that produced them.

3,173 eligible picks · draft classes 2000–2021

Biggest Steals — value far above draft slot

Tom BradyQB2000 · Rd 6, 199th overall · NE

+55.2

Career KV-H 93Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Antonio BrownWR2010 · Rd 6, 195th overall · PIT

+54.2

Career KV-H 92Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Jared AllenDE2004 · Rd 4, 126th overall · KAN

+52.3

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Robert MathisOLB2003 · Rd 5, 138th overall · IND

+52.3

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Tyreek HillWR2016 · Rd 5, 165th overall · KC

+51.8

Career KV-H 91Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

George KittleTE2017 · Rd 5, 146th overall · SF

+50.3

Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Elvis DumervilDE2006 · Rd 4, 126th overall · DEN

+50.3

Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Danielle HunterDE2015 · Rd 3, 88th overall · MIN

+49

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Jason WittenTE2003 · Rd 3, 69th overall · DAL

+49

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Richard ShermanCB2011 · Rd 5, 154th overall · SEA

+45.8

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Maxx CrosbyDE2019 · Rd 4, 106th overall · LV

+45.3

Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Darren WallerTE2015 · Rd 6, 204th overall · BAL

+45.2

Career KV-H 83Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Kabeer Gbaja-BiamilaDE2000 · Rd 5, 149th overall · GB

+44.3

Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Foye OluokunLB2018 · Rd 6, 200th overall · ATL

+44.2

Career KV-H 82Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Justin HoustonOLB2011 · Rd 3, 70th overall · KC

+44

Career KV-H 92Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Geno AtkinsDT2010 · Rd 4, 120th overall · CIN

+42.3

Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Brandon MarshallWR2006 · Rd 4, 119th overall · DEN

+42.3

Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Trent ColeOLB2005 · Rd 5, 146th overall · PHI

+42.3

Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Travis KelceTE2013 · Rd 3, 63rd overall · KC

+41.7

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Bobby WagnerMLB2012 · Rd 2, 47th overall · SEA

+41.7

Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Steve SmithWR2001 · Rd 3, 74th overall · CAR

+41

Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Greg HardyDE2010 · Rd 6, 175th overall · CAR

+40.8

Career KV-H 80Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Aaron KampmanDE2002 · Rd 5, 156th overall · GB

+40.8

Career KV-H 80Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Rob GronkowskiTE2010 · Rd 2, 42nd overall · NE

+40.7

Career KV-H 96Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Za'Darius SmithDE2015 · Rd 4, 122nd overall · BAL

+40.3

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Asante SamuelCB2003 · Rd 4, 120th overall · NE

+40.3

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Matthew JudonOLB2016 · Rd 5, 146th overall · BAL

+39.3

Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Stefon DiggsWR2015 · Rd 5, 146th overall · MIN

+38.3

Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

Geno StoneSAF2020 · Rd 7, 219th overall · BAL

+38.2

Career KV-H 76Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Everson GriffenDE2010 · Rd 4, 100th overall · MIN

+38

Career KV-H 86Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Adalius ThomasOLB2000 · Rd 6, 186th overall · BAL

+37.8

Career KV-H 77Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Marques ColstonWR2006 · Rd 7, 252nd overall · NO

+37.2

Career KV-H 75Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Yannick NgakoueDE2016 · Rd 3, 69th overall · JAX

+37

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Tyrann MathieuFS2013 · Rd 3, 69th overall · ARI

+37

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Jimmy GrahamTE2010 · Rd 3, 95th overall · NO

+37

Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Chris JonesDE2016 · Rd 2, 37th overall · KC

+36.7

Career KV-H 92Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR2021 · Rd 4, 112th overall · DET

+36.3

Career KV-H 81Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7

T.J. WattOLB2017 · Rd 1, 30th overall · PIT

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

J.J. WattDE2011 · Rd 1, 11th overall · HOU

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

DeMarcus WareOLB2005 · Rd 1, 11th overall · DAL

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Dwight FreeneyDE2002 · Rd 1, 11th overall · IND

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Ed ReedFS2002 · Rd 1, 24th overall · BAL

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

John AbrahamOLB2000 · Rd 1, 13th overall · NYJ

+36

Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Mark AndrewsTE2018 · Rd 3, 86th overall · BAL

+36

Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Shaun PhillipsOLB2004 · Rd 4, 98th overall · LAC

+36

Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Michael TurnerRB2004 · Rd 5, 154th overall · SDG

+35.8

Career KV-H 75Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Zach SielerDE2018 · Rd 7, 238th overall · BAL

+35.2

Career KV-H 73Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Chandler JonesDE2012 · Rd 1, 21st overall · NE

+35

Career KV-H 96Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Keenan AllenWR2013 · Rd 3, 76th overall · LAC

+35

Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Cliff AvrilDE2008 · Rd 3, 92nd overall · DET

+35

Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Charles JohnsonDE2007 · Rd 3, 83rd overall · CAR

+35

Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Justin TuckDE2005 · Rd 3, 74th overall · NYG

+35

Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Alfred MorrisRB2012 · Rd 6, 173rd overall · WAS

+34.8

Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Mark AndersonDE2006 · Rd 5, 159th overall · CHI

+34.8

Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Delanie WalkerTE2006 · Rd 6, 175th overall · SF

+34.8

Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2

Davante AdamsWR2014 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · GB

+34.7

Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Calais CampbellDE2008 · Rd 2, 50th overall · ARI

+34.7

Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Quandre DiggsS2015 · Rd 6, 200th overall · DET

+34.2

Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Kurt ColemanS2010 · Rd 7, 244th overall · PHI

+34.2

Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.8

Frank GoreRB2005 · Rd 3, 65th overall · SF

+34

Career KV-H 82Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48

Biggest Busts — premium picks that fell short

Trey LanceQB2021 · Rd 1, 3rd overall · SF

-62.6

Career KV-H 4Expected for Top 5 66.6

Marques TuiasosopoQB2001 · Rd 2, 59th overall · OAK

-51.3

Career KV-H 4Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Kevin WhiteWR2015 · Rd 1, 7th overall · CHI

-46.5

Career KV-H 17Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Pat WhiteQB2009 · Rd 2, 44th overall · MIA

-46.3

Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Limas SweedWR2008 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · PIT

-46.3

Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Johnny ManzielQB2014 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · CLE

-46

Career KV-H 15Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Rashaun WoodsWR2004 · Rd 1, 31st overall · SFO

-45

Career KV-H 16Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

James HardyWR2008 · Rd 2, 41st overall · BUF

-43.3

Career KV-H 12Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Josh RosenQB2018 · Rd 1, 10th overall · ARI

-42.5

Career KV-H 21Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Eric SheltonRB2005 · Rd 2, 54th overall · CAR

-42.3

Career KV-H 13Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Caleb FarleyCB2021 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · TEN

-42

Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Tim TebowQB2010 · Rd 1, 25th overall · DEN

-42

Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

John BeckQB2007 · Rd 2, 40th overall · MIA

-41.3

Career KV-H 14Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

EJ ManuelQB2013 · Rd 1, 16th overall · BUF

-40

Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Justin HarrellDT2007 · Rd 1, 16th overall · GB

-40

Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Charles RogersWR2003 · Rd 1, 2nd overall · DET

-39.6

Career KV-H 27Expected for Top 5 66.6

Jamal ReynoldsDE2001 · Rd 1, 10th overall · GB

-39.5

Career KV-H 24Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Willie HowardDT2001 · Rd 2, 57th overall · MIN

-39.3

Career KV-H 16Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Brady QuinnQB2007 · Rd 1, 22nd overall · CLE

-39

Career KV-H 22Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Cyrus JonesCB2016 · Rd 2, 60th overall · NE

-38.3

Career KV-H 17Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

JaMarcus RussellQB2007 · Rd 1, 1st overall · OAK

-37.6

Career KV-H 29Expected for Top 5 66.6

Jimmy ClausenQB2010 · Rd 2, 48th overall · CAR

-37.3

Career KV-H 18Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Clint SintimLB2009 · Rd 2, 45th overall · NYG

-36.3

Career KV-H 19Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Dwayne HaskinsQB2019 · Rd 1, 15th overall · WAS

-36

Career KV-H 25Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Jake LockerQB2011 · Rd 1, 8th overall · TEN

-35.5

Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Matt LeinartQB2006 · Rd 1, 10th overall · ARI

-35.5

Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Kevin DoddOLB2016 · Rd 2, 33rd overall · TEN

-35.3

Career KV-H 20Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

A.J. JenkinsWR2012 · Rd 1, 30th overall · SF

-35

Career KV-H 26Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Vernon GholstonDE2008 · Rd 1, 6th overall · NYJ

-34.5

Career KV-H 29Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

Marvin AustinDT2011 · Rd 2, 52nd overall · NYG

-34.3

Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Drew StantonQB2007 · Rd 2, 43rd overall · DET

-34.3

Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Tony HollingsRB2003 · Rd 2, 1st overall · HOU

-33.6

Career KV-H 33Expected for Top 5 66.6

Ryan WilliamsRB2011 · Rd 2, 38th overall · ARI

-33.3

Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Taylor JacobsWR2003 · Rd 2, 44th overall · WAS

-33.3

Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Reuben FosterOLB2017 · Rd 1, 31st overall · SF

-33

Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Aaron MaybinLB2009 · Rd 1, 11th overall · BUF

-33

Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

David PollackLB2005 · Rd 1, 17th overall · CIN

-33

Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Chris HenryRB2007 · Rd 2, 50th overall · TEN

-32.3

Career KV-H 23Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Derrius GuiceRB2018 · Rd 2, 59th overall · WAS

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Teez TaborCB2017 · Rd 2, 53rd overall · DET

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Devin SmithWR2015 · Rd 2, 37th overall · NYJ

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

LaMichael JamesRB2012 · Rd 2, 61st overall · SF

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Jimmy WilliamsFS2006 · Rd 2, 37th overall · ATL

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Eddie MooreLB2003 · Rd 2, 49th overall · MIA

-31.3

Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Damon ArnetteCB2020 · Rd 1, 19th overall · LV

-31

Career KV-H 30Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Arthur BrownLB2013 · Rd 2, 56th overall · BAL

-30.3

Career KV-H 25Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Kellen ClemensQB2006 · Rd 2, 49th overall · NYJ

-30.3

Career KV-H 25Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Marcus SmithLB2014 · Rd 1, 26th overall · PHI

-30

Career KV-H 31Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

R.Jay SowardWR2000 · Rd 1, 29th overall · JAX

-30

Career KV-H 31Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Zach WilsonQB2021 · Rd 1, 2nd overall · NYJ

-29.6

Career KV-H 37Expected for Top 5 66.6

Blaine GabbertQB2011 · Rd 1, 10th overall · JAX

-29.5

Career KV-H 34Expected for Picks 6–10 63.5

J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR2019 · Rd 2, 57th overall · PHI

-29.3

Career KV-H 26Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3

Craig DavisWR2007 · Rd 1, 30th overall · SDG

-29

Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Jerome McDougleDE2003 · Rd 1, 15th overall · PHI

-29

Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61

Kelvin JosephCB2021 · Rd 2, 44th overall · DAL

-28.3