NFL Draft Steals & Busts
Which picks beat their draft slot, and which premium picks fell short. Each player's career KV-H(StatVault's era-normalized Historical Knox value) is measured against the average return for its draft-capital bucket — so a 6th-round gem is judged against other 6th-rounders, and a top-5 miss against other top-5 picks.
3,118 eligible picks · draft classes 2000–2021
Biggest Steals — value far above draft slot
- 1+55.6Career KV-H 93Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 2+54.6Career KV-H 92Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 3+52.3Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 4+52.3Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 5+51.8Career KV-H 91Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 6+50.3Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 7+50.3Career KV-H 95Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 8+48.9Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 9+47.9Career KV-H 96Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 10+45.8Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 11+45.6Career KV-H 83Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 12+44.3Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 13+44.3Career KV-H 89Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 14+43.6Career KV-H 81Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 15+43.3Career KV-H 88Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 16+42.9Career KV-H 91Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 17+42.3Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 18+42.3Career KV-H 87Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 19+41.9Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 20+41.8Career KV-H 81Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 21+41.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 22+41.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 23+40.8Career KV-H 80Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 24+40.7Career KV-H 96Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 25+40.3Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 26+39.6Career KV-H 77Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 27+38.6Career KV-H 76Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 28+38.3Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 29+38.3Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 30+38.3Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 31+37.9Career KV-H 86Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 32+37.8Career KV-H 77Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 33+36.9Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 34+36.9Career KV-H 85Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 35+36.3Career KV-H 81Expected for Round 4 (106–150) 44.7
- 36+35.9Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 37+35.9Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 38+35.9Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 39+35.9Career KV-H 84Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 40+35.8Career KV-H 75Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 41+35.8Career KV-H 75Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 42+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 43+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 44+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 45+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 46+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 47+35.7Career KV-H 97Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 48+34.9Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 49+34.9Career KV-H 83Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 50+34.8Career KV-H 74Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 51+34.7Career KV-H 96Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 52+34.7Career KV-H 90Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 53+34.6Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 54+34.6Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 55+34.6Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 56+34.6Career KV-H 72Expected for Rounds 6–7 (191+) 37.4
- 57+33.9Career KV-H 82Expected for Round 3 (65–105) 48.1
- 58+33.8Career KV-H 97Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 59+33.8Career KV-H 73Expected for Round 5 (151–190) 39.2
- 60+33.7Career KV-H 95Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
Biggest Busts — premium picks that fell short
Drawn only from top-two-round picks that registered a measurable career and still fell below their slot. Players with no KV-H on record are excluded — absence is a coverage gap, not evidence of a bust.
- 1-61.7Career KV-H 4Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 2-52.3Career KV-H 3Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 3-46.3Career KV-H 15Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 4-46.3Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 5-46.3Career KV-H 9Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 6-46.2Career KV-H 17Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 7-45.3Career KV-H 16Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 8-42.3Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 9-42.3Career KV-H 19Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 10-42.3Career KV-H 13Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 11-42.3Career KV-H 13Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 12-42.2Career KV-H 21Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 13-41.3Career KV-H 14Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 14-40.3Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 15-40.3Career KV-H 21Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 16-39.3Career KV-H 22Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 17-39.3Career KV-H 16Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 18-39.2Career KV-H 24Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 19-38.7Career KV-H 27Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 20-38.3Career KV-H 17Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 21-38.3Career KV-H 17Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 22-37.7Career KV-H 28Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 23-37.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 24-36.7Career KV-H 29Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 25-35.3Career KV-H 26Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 26-35.3Career KV-H 20Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 27-35.3Career KV-H 20Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 28-35.2Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 29-35.2Career KV-H 28Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 30-34.3Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 31-34.3Career KV-H 21Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 32-34.2Career KV-H 29Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 33-33.3Career KV-H 28Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 34-33.3Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 35-33.3Career KV-H 22Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 36-32.7Career KV-H 33Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 37-32.3Career KV-H 29Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 38-32.3Career KV-H 29Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 39-32.3Career KV-H 23Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 40-31.3Career KV-H 30Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 41-31.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 42-31.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 43-31.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 44-31.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 45-31.3Career KV-H 24Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 46-30.3Career KV-H 31Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 47-30.3Career KV-H 25Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 48-29.7Career KV-H 36Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 49-29.3Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 50-29.3Career KV-H 32Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 51-29.3Career KV-H 26Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 52-29.3Career KV-H 26Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 53-29.2Career KV-H 34Expected for Picks 6–10 63.2
- 54-28.7Career KV-H 37Expected for Top 5 65.7
- 55-28.3Career KV-H 33Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 56-28.3Career KV-H 33Expected for Rest of Rd 1 (11–32) 61.3
- 57-28.3Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 58-28.3Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 59-28.3Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3
- 60-28.3Career KV-H 27Expected for Round 2 (33–64) 55.3