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⏱️

Mr. Reliable vs Boom-Bust

Some stars you could set your watch by — the same elite line, year after year. Others were a roller coaster: a monster season, then a quiet one, then another spike. The Consistency Index measures it with the coefficient of variation of season-to-season production. Low = metronomic; high = boom-bust.

219 eligible careers·≥6 seasons·Coverage: 1999+ (complete-record era)

⏱️ Mr. Reliable

Lowest year-to-year variation — the metronomes

1
Jared GoffQB
9 seasons · avg 4,281 Pass Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.11
2
Philip RiversQB
15 seasons · avg 4,219 Pass Yds · floor 75% of avg
CV 0.11
3
Cam NewtonQB
9 seasons · avg 3,458 Pass Yds · floor 77% of avg
CV 0.12
4
Aaron RodgersQB
16 seasons · avg 4,016 Pass Yds · floor 63% of avg
CV 0.13
5
Patrick MahomesQB
8 seasons · avg 4,457 Pass Yds · floor 81% of avg
CV 0.13
6
DK MetcalfWR
7 seasons · avg 1,025 Rec Yds · floor 83% of avg
CV 0.14
7
Joe MixonRB
7 seasons · avg 1,330 Scrim Yds · floor 69% of avg
CV 0.14
8
Tom BradyQB
21 seasons · avg 4,244 Pass Yds · floor 67% of avg
CV 0.14
9
Russell WilsonQB
13 seasons · avg 3,549 Pass Yds · floor 70% of avg
CV 0.14
10
Daniel JonesQB
6 seasons · avg 2,796 Pass Yds · floor 74% of avg
CV 0.15
11
David MontgomeryRB
7 seasons · avg 1,144 Scrim Yds · floor 79% of avg
CV 0.15
12
Tony RomoQB
8 seasons · avg 3,958 Pass Yds · floor 73% of avg
CV 0.15
13
Matt RyanQB
15 seasons · avg 4,186 Pass Yds · floor 70% of avg
CV 0.15
14
Justin HerbertQB
6 seasons · avg 4,137 Pass Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.15
15
Carson PalmerQB
11 seasons · avg 3,810 Pass Yds · floor 72% of avg
CV 0.15
16
Derek CarrQB
11 seasons · avg 3,750 Pass Yds · floor 57% of avg
CV 0.17
17
Hunter HenryTE
9 seasons · avg 588 Rec Yds · floor 71% of avg
CV 0.17
18
Courtland SuttonWR
7 seasons · avg 899 Rec Yds · floor 78% of avg
CV 0.17
19
D'Andre SwiftRB
6 seasons · avg 1,145 Scrim Yds · floor 77% of avg
CV 0.17
20
Baker MayfieldQB
8 seasons · avg 3,573 Pass Yds · floor 61% of avg
CV 0.19
21
Travis KelceTE
12 seasons · avg 1,084 Rec Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.19
22
Jake DelhommeQB
6 seasons · avg 3,105 Pass Yds · floor 65% of avg
CV 0.19
23
Terry McLaurinWR
7 seasons · avg 994 Rec Yds · floor 59% of avg
CV 0.19
24
Ben RoethlisbergerQB
17 seasons · avg 3,752 Pass Yds · floor 64% of avg
CV 0.19
25
Jay CutlerQB
10 seasons · avg 3,307 Pass Yds · floor 70% of avg
CV 0.19
26
A.J. BrownWR
7 seasons · avg 1,147 Rec Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.19
27
Geno SmithQB
6 seasons · avg 3,470 Pass Yds · floor 73% of avg
CV 0.19
28
Justin JeffersonWR
6 seasons · avg 1,413 Rec Yds · floor 74% of avg
CV 0.20
29
Marques ColstonWR
10 seasons · avg 978 Rec Yds · floor 53% of avg
CV 0.20
30
Josh AllenQB
8 seasons · avg 3,759 Pass Yds · floor 54% of avg
CV 0.21
31
Christian McCaffreyRB
6 seasons · avg 1,912 Scrim Yds · floor 57% of avg
CV 0.21
32
DJ MooreWR
8 seasons · avg 1,027 Rec Yds · floor 66% of avg
CV 0.21
33
CeeDee LambWR
6 seasons · avg 1,236 Rec Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.21
34
Alvin KamaraRB
9 seasons · avg 1,355 Scrim Yds · floor 49% of avg
CV 0.21
35
Joe FlaccoQB
13 seasons · avg 3,273 Pass Yds · floor 56% of avg
CV 0.21
36
Michael CrabtreeWR
9 seasons · avg 799 Rec Yds · floor 76% of avg
CV 0.22
37
Josh JacobsRB
7 seasons · avg 1,411 Scrim Yds · floor 78% of avg
CV 0.22
38
Amari CooperWR
10 seasons · avg 1,005 Rec Yds · floor 55% of avg
CV 0.22
39
Drew BreesQB
19 seasons · avg 4,221 Pass Yds · floor 50% of avg
CV 0.22
40
Heath MillerTE
11 seasons · avg 597 Rec Yds · floor 66% of avg
CV 0.22

🎢 Boom-or-Bust

Highest year-to-year variation — the roller coasters

1
Darren WallerTE
7 seasons · avg 616 Rec Yds · floor 14% of avg
CV 0.63
2
Delanie WalkerTE
11 seasons · avg 508 Rec Yds · floor 31% of avg
CV 0.63
3
Ronnie BrownRB
9 seasons · avg 707 Scrim Yds · floor 15% of avg
CV 0.62
4
Alfred MorrisRB
8 seasons · avg 835 Scrim Yds · floor 30% of avg
CV 0.60
5
Brent CelekTE
11 seasons · avg 454 Rec Yds · floor 29% of avg
CV 0.58
6
Doug MartinRB
6 seasons · avg 1,007 Scrim Yds · floor 49% of avg
CV 0.57
7
Martellus BennettTE
10 seasons · avg 457 Rec Yds · floor 32% of avg
CV 0.57
8
Chester TaylorRB
10 seasons · avg 706 Scrim Yds · floor 24% of avg
CV 0.56
9
Le'Veon BellRB
7 seasons · avg 1,308 Scrim Yds · floor 10% of avg
CV 0.55
10
Alge CrumplerTE
10 seasons · avg 474 Rec Yds · floor 11% of avg
CV 0.54
11
Brian WestbrookRB
9 seasons · avg 1,141 Scrim Yds · floor 25% of avg
CV 0.54
12
Deuce McAllisterRB
6 seasons · avg 1,210 Scrim Yds · floor 21% of avg
CV 0.54
13
Randall CobbWR
12 seasons · avg 599 Rec Yds · floor 7% of avg
CV 0.53
14
Michael TurnerRB
8 seasons · avg 969 Scrim Yds · floor 34% of avg
CV 0.53
15
Donald DriverWR
13 seasons · avg 777 Rec Yds · floor 10% of avg
CV 0.53
16
Mike VickQB
10 seasons · avg 2,029 Pass Yds · floor 4% of avg
CV 0.52
17
Marcedes LewisTE
15 seasons · avg 332 Rec Yds · floor 32% of avg
CV 0.52
18
Larry JohnsonRB
6 seasons · avg 1,248 Scrim Yds · floor 52% of avg
CV 0.52
19
Julio JonesWR
12 seasons · avg 1,094 Rec Yds · floor 7% of avg
CV 0.51
20
Adam ThielenWR
11 seasons · avg 760 Rec Yds · floor 19% of avg
CV 0.51
21
Allen RobinsonWR
9 seasons · avg 779 Rec Yds · floor 36% of avg
CV 0.50
22
Jerricho CotcheryWR
11 seasons · avg 597 Rec Yds · floor 34% of avg
CV 0.50
23
Reggie BushRB
10 seasons · avg 904 Scrim Yds · floor 10% of avg
CV 0.50
24
Odell Beckham Jr.WR
8 seasons · avg 928 Rec Yds · floor 6% of avg
CV 0.50
25
Jordy NelsonWR
10 seasons · avg 859 Rec Yds · floor 37% of avg
CV 0.49
26
Travis HenryRB
7 seasons · avg 1,005 Scrim Yds · floor 37% of avg
CV 0.49
27
Jimmy GrahamTE
12 seasons · avg 709 Rec Yds · floor 24% of avg
CV 0.48
28
David JohnsonRB
6 seasons · avg 1,119 Scrim Yds · floor 41% of avg
CV 0.47
29
Mark IngramRB
12 seasons · avg 853 Scrim Yds · floor 35% of avg
CV 0.47
30
Marty BookerWR
10 seasons · avg 647 Rec Yds · floor 28% of avg
CV 0.47
31
Benjamin WatsonTE
14 seasons · avg 433 Rec Yds · floor 31% of avg
CV 0.47
32
Dallas ClarkTE
10 seasons · avg 532 Rec Yds · floor 64% of avg
CV 0.46
33
Demaryius ThomasWR
10 seasons · avg 976 Rec Yds · floor 29% of avg
CV 0.46
34
Giovani BernardRB
9 seasons · avg 749 Scrim Yds · floor 24% of avg
CV 0.46
35
Kareem HuntRB
9 seasons · avg 887 Scrim Yds · floor 52% of avg
CV 0.46
36
Sam DarnoldQB
7 seasons · avg 2,755 Pass Yds · floor 11% of avg
CV 0.45
37
Lee EvansWR
8 seasons · avg 751 Rec Yds · floor 10% of avg
CV 0.44
38
Antonio BrownWR
10 seasons · avg 1,169 Rec Yds · floor 14% of avg
CV 0.44
39
Rudi JohnsonRB
6 seasons · avg 1,094 Scrim Yds · floor 30% of avg
CV 0.43
40
Nick ChubbRB
7 seasons · avg 1,184 Scrim Yds · floor 31% of avg
CV 0.43
Methodology.Consistency = the coefficient of variation (standard deviation ÷ mean) of a player's season-to-season production, using a position-appropriate yardage proxy (QB passing, RB/FB scrimmage, WR/TE receiving). A fully-missed season isn't counted; a partial (injury-shortened) season counts as a low value and reads — fairly — as volatility. This is a different question than Compilers vs Comets: peak-share measures concentration in the best 3 years; CV measures dispersion across all of them. Eligibility and the 1999+ coverage gate match peak-share, so the two are directly comparable lenses on the same population.